If you require agronomic or farm management advice
Ross Watson Agriculture P/L
Scone.NSW. Australia. 2337.
Phone: (61) 2 6545 0128
Mobile: 0428 658 704
Out today topdressing one of our major clients lucerne hay stands. Fertiliser and nutrition programs on lucerne hay production areas are absolutely critical. Large amounts of major nutrients like P+K+S+Ca and trace elements like zinc are "mined" off your hay paddocks with every cut and hay bale, only to end up somewhere else. Make sure you are looking after your lucerne hay stands and not depleting them, especially now with high demand and high prices.
Call for further advice. ... See more
I think it is worth studying historical rainfall patterns, to better understand the behaviour of these rainfall cycles and droughts.
In response to many clients requests , I have pulled together the rainfall data from those TOP 10 Driest years from Jan to Aug, like this year and last year and then looked at what happened in the months following August , into spring and summer.
A few points to consider
* The Top 10 dry periods at Scone (Jan-Aug) were associated with our worst droughts. These years listed here are my " Notorious Gang of 10"
* I know a lot are thinking it wont rain again, but it will as this data shows. If you study the data there are several above average months but also several well below average months that followed, with the overall trend , more average to below average rainfall amounts.
* Spring rainfall (Sept-Nov) in these dry years ranged from 56 mm to 139 mm and averaged 106 mm, which is less than the long term average of 156mm.
* Summer rainfall (Dec to Feb) following these dry years ranged from 44 mm to 158 mm and average 113 mm, which is less than the long term average of 221 mm.
* The following 6 months rainfall Sept to Feb ranged from 137 mm to 297 mm and averaged 219 mm, which is less than the 377 mm long term average.
* So , as this data shows, in these low rainfall years , Jan to Aug , it tended to also continue with below average spring and summer rainfall, which is not good.
* Unfortunately ,previously in these dry years , there was NO major rain events of 100 mm plus in any months and tended to range between only 1 - 70 mm in any month. The probability of getting 100 mm or more in any of these months, with all years rainfall data is only 0-5% anyway. Its a very long shot !
2017 and 2018 have been one of the driest in over 118 years of records. As I have discussed, since earlier this year , this drought has followed the same pattern as several of the most notorious drought years.
Will it continue the same pattern as the Gang of 10 , or break out and do something very different and rain properly ?? ... See more
"This too shall pass!" As we all do our best to get through this current drought, remember it won't always be this way and to take one day at a time. When things come good, remember it won't always be this way too, enjoy those times and maximise your returns and better prepare for the future each time.
The top graph shows the real variation in Scone's annual rainfall over the last 118 years. This will be typical of most districts. There are as many below average years (50yrs) as above average years (53yrs) and only a handful (15 yrs) of average year rainfalls. Years with 200-300 mm below the average line were bad drought years, but it is the combinations or successive years of below average rainfall 2-5 years, like now, that really hurt .
Please study the 2 graphs. A few highlights,
1. the first 50 years of this century were drier and tougher than this last 50 years.
2. there have been some severe and extended drought periods, like shown in the 1930-1945 period. Therefore it is possible that such an event could happen again.
3.Our earlier generations, during 1900-1950, had to endure a lot of tough seasonal conditions, as shown by the declining cumulative rainfall pattern as compared to wetter period in recent decades. They also did not have the benefit of todays technology, water systems, transport, fodder, feed sources and drought management options that our generation has available. Droughts are tough at anytime.
We should ensure our farming or grazing systems are in tune with this climate variability. Understanding the "roller coaster ride" our climate throws at us is important in our farm planning and management. ... See more
‼️ ONLINE AUCTION FOR OUR FARMERS‼️
Our Australian farmers need our help with this record-breaking drought. I'm committed to making a difference, but I need your help!
I've decided to host an online auction of an Adelaide Watson Photography LIMITED EDITION 40x40cm canvas print.
ALL proceeds raised will be donated to The Official Aussie Helpers Page and our farmers in need.
HOW IT WILL WORK:
Place your bid in the comments below.
The canvas will go to the highest bid at 3pm Friday 17th August!
Good luck everyone!
Please share and dig deep 💛 ... See more